Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin are by no means the favourites to win the Australian Grand Prix, which opens the F1 World Championship this weekend. However, a window has opened for the Spaniard to cause an upset and achieve the long-awaited 33rd victory. It would be the dream start to the season.
Aston Martin’s real chances
The AMR25 has made a leap in quality this season compared to last year. This is what they say at the team, what Fernando Alonso says, and what the telemetry itself says. The car has improved cornering and top speed. It still has wear problems, but fewer than last year and its chances, as things stand, are to be the fifth car on the grid and, therefore, its fight is to get into the top 10.
There is hope for a better performance given the information coming out of Aston Martin and, once the telemetry data of the AMR25 in the tests of two weeks ago in Bahrain is known, it has been experienced that those at Silverstone did not use the maximum power of the car. In the best-case scenario, with the forecasts known to date, Alonso could try to sneak the AMR25 into the top 7. And finishing fifth or better would be an almost unthinkable success for Aston Martin.
Why Alonso can dream of victory
Fernando Alonso has already pointed out the level expected of the car and the great equality that can exist during the season. And small details and good decisions at key moments can mean a significant jump up the grid. And it is to these decisions that Fernando Alonso clings in order to spring a surprise.
It is expected that during the Formula 1 race in Australia this weekend, rain may appear, something that could turn the race upside down. The driver who makes the best decision at the right time, in case it finally does rain, may have a good chance of springing a surprise. Once the circuit is soaked, there is no need to comment on Fernando Alonso’s expertise in wet conditions.
Weather forecast for the Australian GP
The weather is threatening the Australian GP. For Friday and Saturday the chances of rain are low, around 10%, so we shouldn’t expect any surprises in qualifying.
However, Sunday will be a rainy day in Melbourne. Rain is forecast to fall throughout the day. At the time of writing, the race forecast is 50%, a coin toss, heads it’s dry, tails it’s wet. These forecasts are constantly evolving and by race day the chances of rain could increase in a GP that is used to giving us wet races. We will have to keep an eye on the sky.
The real chances of seeing Fernando Alonso at the top of the podium in dry conditions are practically zero. However, the arrival of rain is an incentive for the drivers, especially for those who do not start from high positions on the grid, as it allows them to take risks with strategy in order to try to move up positions. Fernando Alonso may have his first real opportunity this weekend to bring out the magic in his hands. Yes, we know that winning the race is very difficult, but surprises do sometimes happen in Formula 1, and this is one where the Asturian driver will have to be very attentive if he wants to get a result in the first race of the year.