Many Americans are still waiting for the so-called DOGE savings, hoping that they will receive a $5,000 DOGE stimulus check or some form of a Trump-approved tax refund. The proposal to have a DOGE dividend check was first floated by the CEO of Azoria, James Fishback, and proposed by Elon Musk and Trump.
What is the DOGE Stimulus Check?
The DOGE stimulus check is a proposed tax refund funded by potential savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which is headed by Elon Musk and given the mandate to slash federal spending and boost productivity in government agencies.
Investment CEO James Fishback floated the idea that 20% of the savings be sent as tax refund checks directly to American households. He argued that it would not be inflationary like previous COVID-era stimulus checks because the funds would come from actual savings and not deficit spending.
When Musk took his position with DOGE, he set an ambitious goal of cutting $2 trillion from federal sending. On April 11, Musk announced that DOGE would revise its projected savings goal for fiscal year 2026 from $1 trillion to $150 billion. The most recent estimate for DOGE savings is $170 billion as of May 12.
How Much Could the DOGE Dividend Check Be?
Fishback’s proposal projected $2 trillion in savings with 20% which is 400 billion refunded to taxpayers. The amount would be split across 79 million tax-paying households meaning that each household would get approximately a $5,000 check.
However, that number has changed significantly, and with a reported savings of $170 billion as of May 12, a 20% refund would mean that each household would get a $380 check. Unfortunately, even that lower payout seems highly unlikely given the multiple reports suggesting that DOGE may have overstated its savings. Some estimates indicate that the agency could cost taxpayers $135 billion due to lost productivity, lawsuits, and rehiring of federal employees who had been sacked.
Who Qualifies for the DOGE Stimulus Check?
The proposed DOGE dividend would not be sent to all Americans like the 2020-2021 stimulus checks. Instead, the plan would issue checks only to net federal income taxpayer’s meaning that only households with individuals that pay more in federal taxes than they receive in funds or credits.
This excludes many lower-income Americans especially those earning less than $40,000 a year, who pay little or no federal income tax after deduction and credits. Therefore, part-time workers, Social Security recipients, and those with minimal tax liability would not be eligible for a DOGE refund.
According to Fishback, the policy rewards households that have sent money to D.C. and only these higher-income earners are more likely to save their refund rather than spend it thus making the refunds less inflationary.
Latest Update on the DOGE Dividend
So far, the DOGE idea has not been formally introduced in Congress. In an interview on April 8, Fishback expressed his optimism saying: “Yes, I really do believe it will happen, and I’ve got unique information because I’ve been on the Hill for the last two weeks, meeting with members in the House and Senate.”
Trump showed his support for the DOGE dividend idea during a February summit in Miami where he mentioned the possibility of distributing a $5,000 check refunded by DOGE savings. However, since then, no concrete details or timelines have been formally announced.
Will Americans Get a DOGE Stimulus Check?
Although the idea of a $5,000 DOGE dividend check is enticing, the current figures don’t support it. Here are the reasons why the numbers don’t back up the idea:
- DOGE has only saved $170 billion which is far below its $2 trillion target.
- If the check were aid today, households would get only $380 per household.
- Lower-income Americans are at risk of missing out because the eligibility criteria require households to be net taxpayers.
- No official law has been enacted to distribute such a check.
In addition to the above reasons, there are legal challenges and possible hidden costs of the DOGE initiative that make the possibility of these checks murkier.
Conclusion
While the DOGE dividend check has sparked interest and captured headlines, it remains just a political talking point rather than a realistic idea at the moment. Americans should lower their expectations for a $5,000 refund from Trump, at least for now.