The Social Security Administration (SSA) has been undergoing various changes over the course of the year thus far. Frank Bisignano has officially been appointed the commissioner of the Social Security Agency, the new Social Security Fairness Act has come into effect causing many beneficiaries to have their full benefits restored to them, the overpayment clawback rate has been changed to 50%, and the agency will be introducing digital Social Security Cards this summer.
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan group, is expressing concern that cutbacks at the federal government could spell trouble for Social Security recipients in the near future.
Here is what you need to know.
Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment 2026
The Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA, is an adjustment that is added to your Social Security benefit amount each year in order to help beneficiaries keep up with the effects of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which measures the “average price change over time for a market basket of goods and services.” The CPI-W is then used to calculate the COLA by comparing the data from the third quarter of the year to the same data of the previous year. The difference between the two figures then becomes the COLA for the upcoming year.
For May of this year, the CPI-W was calculated to be 2.2%. A June 11 update from the Senior Citizens League revealed the group’s predictions for the 2026 COLA which stood at 2.5% — the same as 2025’s COLA. The official COLA for 2026 will be announced in October, however.
Cutbacks raising accuracy concerns
According to the Senior Citizen League’s report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is facing a new type of difficulty regarding the calculation of the CPI-W which is used to determine the COLA. The report goes on to highlight a statement from The Wall Street Journal which explains that “a hiring freeze at the agency has forced the Consumer Price Index program to cut back on the number of businesses where it measures prices.”
In the report TSCL explains that the CPI data is not as accurate as usual. This is because, in April, the agency did not collection inflation data from three cities, presumably as a result of the hiring freeze. Additionally, the method used to estimate prices showed lowered accuracy.
Less than accurate CPI data results in an unreliable measure of inflation which could significantly impact the purchasing power of the Social Security benefits.
“While streamlining the federal government is a good thing, that shouldn’t involve cutting back on our ability to measure how our economy is changing. Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement,” says Shannon Benton, director of the Senior Citizens League.
Benton goes on to note that, “Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward. TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”
Many seniors have begun showing doubt regarding this matter as well. The report also mentions the Senior Citizens League’s 2025 Senior Survey, which states that “80 percent of seniors thought 2024’s inflation was over 3 percent, which is higher than this year’s COLA of 2.5 percent.”
If the accuracy of the data used to measure inflation does not improve, the possibility of a COLA that does not actually match inflation will be increased which could cause significant strain on the income of retirees.