We’re still a few months out from the official announcement of the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), but that hasn’t stopped retirees and financial analysts from trying to read the tea leaves. If Social Security is your main or only source of income, it’s completely understandable to be anxious about what kind of raise might be coming.
Don’t Expect It to Be Bigger Than the 2025 Adjustment
The 2025 COLA came in at 2.5%, the lowest bump we’ve seen since 2021. And if the latest numbers from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) are anything to go by, 2026 won’t be much different. As of May, they’re predicting a 2.4% increase, which is just slightly below this year’s raise.
The estimate has held pretty steady lately, creeping up just a bit from earlier guesses of 2.2% and 2.3%. But don’t take it as final, things could still change. The actual COLA is based on inflation from July through September, so if prices jump during those months, the adjustment could end up being a little higher.
Still, it’s important to keep in mind that even a higher COLA doesn’t mean more financial breathing room. In most cases, those bigger checks just help cover the higher costs of everyday living.
It’s Likely to Fall Short for Struggling Retirees
A 2.4% boost might look okay at first glance, but for a lot of seniors, it’s not going to make a big difference. If you’re collecting the average benefit, about $2,002 a month in May 2025 then you’d see just a $48 increase, bringing your check to around $2,050. Not exactly a game-change
Sure, it’s something, but with the cost of food, rent, and healthcare continuing to increase, it’s not likely to ease much pressure. According to TSCL, Social Security checks today buy about 20% less than they did in 2010. So, for a lot of retirees, these modest increases just aren’t keeping up.
Planning Ahead: What You Can Do
If you’re worried that a modest COLA won’t cover what you need, you’re not alone. Many older adults are starting to think more seriously about how to make up the difference. That might mean tapping into personal savings, picking up part-time work, or checking to see if you qualify for additional assistance, like Supplemental Security Income (SSI) or food programs.
A Possible Shift on the Horizon?
There’s been talk in Washington for years about changing how Social Security’s annual COLA is figured. Right now, it’s tied to the CPI-W—the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. But that measure doesn’t really reflect how most retirees spend their money.
That’s why some lawmakers want to switch to the CPI-E, or Consumer Price Index for the Elderly. It puts more weight on healthcare and other costs that hit older Americans hardest. If adopted, it would probably mean slightly bigger annual increases. So far, nothing official has happened, but the idea keeps coming back and could gain traction if enough people push for it.
The Bottom Line
Until the official announcement comes in October, we’re all left to wait and watch. But that doesn’t mean you can’t start preparing. Keep an eye on your expenses, review your budget, and consider your backup options in case the increase isn’t enough to keep pace with your needs.
One More Thing…
As you figure out how to make your Social Security check go further, it’s also worth looking at ways you might be able to boost your benefits overall. A lot of people leave money on the table without realizing it. Things like waiting a little longer to claim, planning around spousal benefits, or finding ways to cut down the taxes on your payments can all make a difference. These aren’t always obvious, but they can add up over time.
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This article was written based on information from The Motley Fool.