Real Madrid will play tonight to qualify for the round of 16 of the Club World Cup. A defeat for the Whites could see them out of the competition if Al-Hilal wins, a scenario that is possible but not being considered by the squad, who are convinced they can get through tonight’s game. Xabi Alonso’s men are doing the math: finishing first or second puts them in different parts of the draw, which could be a handicap when thinking about a possible final.
Real Madrid’s math to reach the round of 16
Real Madrid leads Group H of the Club World Cup with four points, the same number as tonight’s opponent, Salzburg. A win for Xabi Alonso’s side would put them top of the group with seven points.
If the match ends in a draw, qualification would also be mathematically certain, but several scenarios are possible if Al-Hilal wins its match, as there would be a three-way tie on five points:
- If they win by one goal, they would have to break the tie with Salzburg and the number of goals scored by each team would count, with Real Madrid finishing top.
- If they win by two goals, they would finish second in the group and Real Madrid would go through as group winners.
- If they win by three goals, they would finish top and Real Madrid would finish second in the group.
If Real Madrid loses its match, only a victory for Al-Hilal would knock them out of the round of 16. A draw would see the Whites qualify.
Is it better to finish first or second in the group?
Given the options in the group, it is quite difficult for Real Madrid to qualify as second in the group, but it is a possibility. Let’s see how each scenario could play out:
If they finish top of the group, they would play the winner of Manchester City vs. Juventus, who are playing tonight at 9 p.m. Spanish time and are fighting for top spot (they are level on points with the Italian leaders in the event of a draw). If the favorites advance in their knockout rounds, the quarterfinals could see a clash with Borussia Dortmund. In the semifinals, the opponent would be the current Champions League champion, PSG, and a hypothetical final would be against the European runner-up, Inter Milan.
If they finish second, they would play the round of 16 against the winner of Manchester City – Juventus. In the quarterfinals, the opponent could be Inter Milan. The possible semifinal could be against Chelsea and the hypothetical final would be against PSG.
Two complicated paths
Both paths to the final are complicated, and these are only predictions. It is difficult for them to come true, as there are other great teams in the round of 16, such as Bayern and the Libertadores champion, Botafogo, in addition to the surprises that always occur in this type of competition.
But it is true that it seems that Real Madrid could have a slightly easier path as group leaders. And this is the logical path that Real Madrid must take, as they are not considering finishing second, which could be a significant risk that could leave them out of the round of 16, because let’s not forget that this season’s Real Madrid is capable of the best and the worst. Their passage to the last 16 is taken for granted, but they have to play, and they have to win the game. That’s why Xabi Alonso is treating this game as if it were his first final, and in a way, it is.