Just like in soccer, the F1 market for 2026 is also in its transfer season. The reigning champion, Verstappen, and his possible move to Mercedes is the name that is generating the most buzz, as is to be expected.
Up to six drivers are on the F1 market looking for a better team
But so is Colapinto to stay or not at Alpine, or Russell himself, who would probably lose his seat if the Dutchman ends up signing the contract that Toto Wolff has had on the table for weeks.
With all this going on, the F1 market is currently very entertaining, with different angles in various parts of the grid. In some cases, such as Verstappen’s, they are doing so with their sights set on a car that could allow them to storm the 2026 championship, with the new regulations as the main focus for everyone.
As is usual at this point in the season, even though Formula 1 has not yet gone on vacation—it will do so after the next Belgian Grand Prix—many voices are beginning to take various moves for granted, especially for a championship as unpredictable as next season’s looks to be.
Of course, it is also a time when drivers occasionally choose to make statements in an attempt to improve their status on the grid by moving to a better team. Here, and due to the fact that a new team, Cadillac, will be joining the grid in 2026, the signing or movement of one driver or another will end up causing an earthquake in a good number of seats, as we saw, for example, with the retirement of Vettel in 2022, which led to the signing of Fernando Alonso by Aston Martin; Pierre Gasly’s move to Alpine and Oscar Piastri’s move to McLaren.
Verstappen has to decide his future
At the moment, as we say, and despite the fact that it was going to be a fairly comfortable year with the biggest contracts, there are currently up to six drivers whose contracts expire at the end of the season: Russell, Antonelli, Tsunoda, Lawson, Hadjar, and Colapinto. Many of them are looking to secure a good seat to reach that red-letter year with the best possible momentum.
The first case, and the one that could really open other doors at other teams, is Max Verstappen, who has to decide his future with or without Red Bull, choosing whether or not to go with Mercedes. The champion is the talk of the town.
Yes, his contract with Red Bull runs until 2028… but the Dutchman is willing to break that bond, with all that it entails. “I don’t talk about my contract,” he says about the future. However, he neither denies nor confirms whether he will stay at Red Bull. The team insists that they want to return to the top and that nothing will change in relation to the departure of their former team boss. However, Horner’s dismissal continues to open the door for Verstappen, as the driver is unhappy with the energy drink brand’s top brass, from its CEO, Oliver Mintzlaff, to its co-owner, Thai businessman Chalerm Yoovidhya.
He also believes that Red Bull is lagging behind the others in terms of preparing for the new 2026 regulations, with more doubts than certainties about its partnership with Ford.
Wolff wants Verstappen alongside Antonelli… without forgetting Alpine
At Mercedes, Toto Wolff in particular is keen to see him arrive and is putting the most pressure on him. The question is how they will deal with the fact that Verstappen wants a car tailored strictly to his needs, as he has been doing at Red Bull.
This, in parallel, will immediately lead Mercedes to opt to dispense with George Russell. The Briton, a team man since childhood, would be left without a contract with Brackley, who, given Kimi Antonelli’s good performance on his debut this year, believe he is the man of the future for the team, forming a hypothetical duo with Verstappen.
In other news, should Wolff and Russell finally agree to extend their contract, there would be talk of moving the Italian to Alpine, a team that will no longer use Renault engines and will instead use those from the house of the star.
This is the information coming out of Italy, although it is emphasized that Verstappen and Russell would be an explosive duo… literally: the relationship between the two is quite bad, and the Dutchman would like to arrive as the sole leader. Mercedes has not renewed Russell, but Aston Martin closes the door on him; Sainz enters Red BullMercedes has not renewed Russell, the driver it is guiding in his career.
What’s more, the ‘63’ was linked with Aston Martin, something that also happened to Verstappen himself. But the Silverstone team ruled out those plans, even though Alonso advised him to sign. For now, the idea remains the same: that Fernando and Lance Stroll will continue to drive the AMR26 in 2026… although it is unknown what will happen after that.
There is, of course, the possibility that Red Bull and Mercedes will ‘swap’ their two great leaders, giving the Englishman the opportunity to drive the car left by the Dutchman. However, the new energy drink company’s management does not entirely agree.
In addition to continuing to consider drivers from their own school, such as promoting Hadjar (with the danger that this entails for young drivers, as no one other than Verstappen is capable of controlling that car), Mekies, the new CEO and director of the ‘fighting bulls’, has Carlos Sainz as his first choice should Max decide to leave. So if Sainz decides to leave Williams, with whom he has a contract until 2026, he could also leave a vacancy at Groove that will need to be filled. If he refuses, George would have a clear path to that position.
Sergio Pérez has a deal with Cadillac, and Russell is looking at projects such as Alpine.
Another possible option for Russell would be to look for a less competitive and more long-term project, and in that sense, he would have Alpine instead of Franco Colapinto due to his great speed and leadership skills, or he could bet on a future project such as Cadillac. The seat on this new team is being heavily considered, especially for Mexican Sergio Pérez, the number one candidate to drive the team’s first car since its inclusion was announced in 2026.
At this point, as we know from GRADA3, ‘Checo’ has already signed with Cadillac to make his return to Formula 1 after a year without competing. Although Mario Andretti, director of Cadillac F1, and Graeme Lowdon, designated team principal, were clear that the Mexican should fill the seat, the sporting demands of Pérez, winner of six Grand Prix races and runner-up in the Drivers’ Championship, delayed the decision. The official announcement is expected to be made during the summer break, Cadillac’s deadline for securing the first driver for its new project.
Other names being considered to accompany the Guadalajara native are Drugovich, 2022 F2 champion and current Aston Martin reserve driver; Valtteri Bottas, currently working as a test driver and reserve for Mercedes; Mick Schumacher, who currently races for Alpine in the World Endurance Championship and would bring in a large sum of money in the form of sponsors; and Colton Hertha, an American driver who races in IndyCar, although the latter is the least likely to take the wheel.
Colapinto could leave Alpine and return to Williams
On the other hand, of course, if Russell decides to embark on projects such as Alpine (which will be powered by Mercedes engines in 2026), Franco Colapinto would be one of the drivers to leave his seat. In any case, there are nuances and clauses for the Argentine. The first thing to note is that Franco has secured his position as an official driver for the remainder of 2025. He will do so on a ‘race-by-race’ basis until the end of the year, and if he manages to put in a strong performance, as he did in 2024 when he surprised everyone, he would have a good chance of continuing in such a challenging season, which will see a major aerodynamic and engine revolution.
Briatore trusted him and, despite his performance not being the best, the team is aware of the limited time and room for maneuver he has been given with what is clearly the worst car on the grid. It is the most difficult to drive, the one with the most correlation problems, the one that has experienced the most mishaps and reliability issues… and the one with a poor Renault engine, certainly behind Honda, Ferrari, and Mercedes in terms of pure performance and power delivery.
Similarly, there is something important to consider. Even if Alpine signs Colapinto for 2025—joining the team from the seventh race of the year with a handicap of two months and six races behind the rest of the competitors—the Pilar driver is not entirely owned by the French team. In fact, even at this stage in 2025, the Enstone-based team has not exercised its right to buy the driver; they will only do so once the season is over, when Williams’ ‘loan’ for this year ends, as stipulated in his five-year contract. Once this season is over, they will have to pay the agreed €20 million to Groove for his signing.
As this media outlet understands, it is in that contract that the Argentine holds all the cards. Although Alpine signed him for a multi-year period, Franco has the option of not committing beyond 2025 and returning to his initial role at Williams, which was to be a test and reserve driver from the start of 2024.
That would open the door for all three parties involved; Briatore’s team could thus let him go to pursue Russell, and Franco would make his return to the team with which he made his F1 debut and which he holds in such high esteem. Furthermore, if Sainz decides to leave Williams to take on the leading role he wants at Red Bull, Franco would drive in the World Championship, taking the Spaniard’s place. It’s a puzzle that would be a win-win for all parties.
Tsunoda looking for a free seat outside Red Bull
Finally, the future of Tsunoda is now unknown. The Japanese driver is being closely watched by Helmut Marko due to his poor performance in an excessively difficult car to drive, just as happened with Lawson and Pérez. This is where Tsunoda is also looking to get ahead of any free seats that will allow him to remain in Formula 1 before Red Bull ends his career for good. In his place, Isak Hadjar is being proposed to make the leap if Russell ultimately fails to secure that car. Arvid Lindblad is a strong favorite to take over from Hadjar at RB.
The ball is now in Verstappen’s court, although Mercedes and Red Bull will also be pushing hard to sign him and keep him, respectively. It will be after the summer break when everything starts to become clearer, and when the protagonists have had time during their vacations to reflect on their options for the future.