Social Security payments aren’t set in stone. Although your retirement benefit starts off based on how much you earned while working, the amount usually changes from year to year. That’s because the cost of living isn’t constant, prices tend to rise over time. To help retirees keep up, benefits need to adjust as well, or else their money won’t stretch as far.
Almost 60% of retirees count on Social Security as a main part of their income, according to Gallup, so staying ahead of rising living costs is crucial. But looking ahead to 2026, some may notice that their monthly payments increase only slightly or seem to shrink. The good news is that most seniors are protected from actual reductions thanks to a little-known safeguard built into the system.
What Drives Social Security Changes?
Every year Social Security benefits are adjusted through what’s known as a Cost-of-Living Adjustment, or COLA. The idea behind it is simple: to help retirees keep pace with rising prices. This adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures changes in the cost of common goods and services. These figures are calculated and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The COLA is figured by looking at the average CPI-W numbers from July through September and comparing them to the same months the year before. If those numbers go up, benefits usually follow. Right now, early estimates point to a 2.7% COLA for 2026.
The Medicare Premium Problem
Most retirees are covered by Medicare, and the cost for Part B, which helps pay for things like doctor visits and outpatient services, is usually taken straight from their Social Security checks.
The problem is that in 2026, Part B premiums are expected to rise by $21.50 a month, jumping from $185.00 to $206.50. That’s an 11.6% increase, one of the steepest we’ve seen in a while.
If this increase ends up being higher than the cost-of-living adjustment, it could cancel out the Social Security raise for many retirees. For those receiving smaller monthly payments, it might even seem like they’re taking home less.
The Hold Harmless Provision: A Quiet Lifesaver
The Hold Harmless provision is a federal rule designed to shield retirees from seeing their Social Security payments reduced when Medicare Part B premiums rise.
If the annual COLA isn’t enough to cover the full premium increase, a retiree’s benefit won’t go down. Instead, their monthly payment remains unchanged, and they pay a lower Medicare premium for the time being. When future COLA increases are larger, the difference is made up gradually, without taking a bite out of their Social Security check.
This protection applies to the majority of retirees, especially those who:
- Were enrolled in Medicare before 2022,
- Pay the standard premium, and
- Don’t have their Medicare premiums paid by Medicaid or pay extra due to higher income.
Who Isn’t Protected?
Not everyone qualifies for the Hold Harmless protection. The rule doesn’t apply to:
- New Medicare enrolees (starting from 2022),
- People who pay income-related monthly adjustment amounts (IRMAA), or
- Retirees whose premiums are paid by Medicaid.
These groups may see their Social Security checks go down if the premium increase outpaces COLA.
What This Means for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, retirees may face a year where their Social Security payments don’t go much further than they already do. With Medicare premiums on the rise, any expected COLA increase could be completely offset.
The silver lining? The Hold Harmless provision ensures that qualified retirees won’t see their monthly checks go down, even if Medicare gets more expensive.
For those living on a fixed income, this often-overlooked rule offers meaningful protection when every dollar really matters.