Social Security beneficiaries must be sure to mark October 15, 2025, on their calendars especially if recipients rely on Social Security to cover your monthly bills. This is the date that the Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026. This specific update impacts how your monthly benefits will increase (if anything), effective from January 2026.
The COLA is meant to assist beneficiaries maintain their purchasing power and keep up with the rising costs of inflation. For over 70 million Americans who depend on these payments, even a slight increase can make a major difference.
Why October 15 Matters
Every October, the SSA looks at inflation data from the third quarter of that year to calculate the next year’s (COLA). The SSA looks at a key factor which is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). As soon as the information for September is released, the COLA is finalized and thereafter made public.
For the year 2025, the COLA is expected to made public around October 15th. As of January 2026, the increase in benefits will affect millions of American retirees who rely on Social Security to cover their daily essential expenses.
What Is COLA and Why It Matters
The COLA is designed to help Social Security benefits keep pace with rising costs. Usually, when inflation increases, COLA also increases. However, it is important to note that if inflation slows or decreases, the increase in COLA may be smaller or there might not even be any increase. This makes a difference to many retirees as Social Security makes up about 40% of a person’s pre-retirement earnings. A minor increase can still help beneficiaries with the rising costs.
Current Outlook for the 2026 Adjustment
Many economists are currently predicting a COLA increase of about 2.5% for 2026. This prediction shows a steady but slower inflation over the last year. It is important to note that the final COLA won’t be confirmed until the CPI-W data for September is analysed. The SSA is expected to make the official announcement for COLA around mid-October.
How to Prepare for the Update
If you depend mainly on Social Security to cover your expenses, it is considered important to start preparing ahead of the upcoming changes. Here are a few steps you can take before the announcement in October:
- Follow monthly inflation updates (CPI-W) to get a brief idea of how much your benefits might potentially go up.
- Log into your online Social Security account or check your mail, the SSA will post the official COLA update there.
- Stay alert for scams. The SSA won’t call, text, or email asking for your bank info. Any COLA changes happen on their own, you don’t need to do anything.
Is the 2026 COLA Enough?
A 2.5% increase may seem beneficial. However it frequently falls short of what is actually required to keep up with the rising costs of the economy, and this is the reality that people on fixed incomes face.
Regardless of a decline from 2022 and 2023, inflation remains a cause for concern. The elderly population still struggle to pay for essentials such as food, rent and healthcare and this affects their purchasing power. Therefore, a lower-than-expected COLA might cause some concern. Even a 2.5% increase might not be enough to cover the real costs of living on a fixed income.
What’s next?
The official COLA announcement is quickly approaching. The SSA will receive a lot of attention when the final announcement is made on October 15th. As a beneficiary, it is important to keep yourself updated as any unexpected increase in inflation from up until then, could potentially affect the final result.