As the third quarter of the year progresses, anticipation is likely growing among beneficiaries of the Social Security program as we get closer to the next COLA—Cost-of-Living Adjustment—announcement from the Social Security Administration (SSA). There are currently around 74 million Social Security recipients, many of whom rely solely or primarily on their monthly benefit income to get by.
Since Social Security income is fixed, the effects of inflation can be long-lasting for these households. To help monthly checks maintain their purchasing power amid rising prices, the SSA implements a cost-of-living adjustment once a year. Third-quarter inflation data are measured year over year to determine the inflation rate; using these data, the COLA is set annually and announced in October.
Early predictions from experts placed the 2026 COLA at around 2.5%, the same as the 2025 COLA. However, as the year progresses and third-quarter inflation data solidify, the 2026 projection is now slightly higher than this year’s COLA. Here is what you need to know.
How is the COLA measured?
The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is the percentage increase applied to Social Security benefits each year to account for inflation. The inflation gauge used is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The CPI-W for the third quarter (July, August, and September) of the current year is compared with the CPI-W for the third quarter of the previous year. If there is an increase, that percentage becomes the amount by which Social Security benefits will be raised in the upcoming year. The CPI-W includes more than 200 price categories, each of which carries different weight in the final calculation.
Based on the July data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL)—a nonpartisan senior advocacy organization—has updated its projection for the 2026 COLA to 2.7%, up from its previous estimate of 2.6% based on June’s data. TSCL’s estimate now matches that of independent analyst Mary Johnson, who also projected a 2.7% COLA based on June’s data.
Seniors are feeling frustrated with their Social Security benefits
While a higher COLA would mean a bigger benefit, it also reflects higher prices. As such, a higher COLA can still spell trouble for seniors, particularly those who get by on Social Security alone—which, according to TSCL estimates, amounts to about 21.8 million seniors. A recent TSCL study found that many seniors are frustrated with their monthly amounts, with the vast majority agreeing that the “2025 COLA of 2.5 percent was too low and that their benefits grow more slowly than inflation.”
Eighty percent of study participants thought inflation was at least 3%, and almost all agreed that reforms are necessary. The chief concern was the inflation measure used to calculate the COLA. Many felt it is inaccurate because it does not sufficiently account for older adults’ expenses.
“The most popular option, supported by 68 percent of seniors, was calculating the COLA with an inflation index that better represents seniors’ economic experiences. The government currently calculates the COLA with the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, but TSCL advocates switching to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly,” the report states.
TSCL executive director Shannon Benton added:
“The data in this study show what seniors have been telling TSCL for years: Social Security checks aren’t keeping up with inflation. If four in five seniors think inflation was higher than the government reported in 2024, maybe we should stop questioning their experiences and start questioning why the COLA is failing to measure them.”