As October inches closer, anticipation is likely growing for Social Security beneficiaries, as each passing day brings us nearer to the annual COLA announcement. The COLA—Cost-of-Living Adjustment—is an annual increase applied to benefit amounts to account for inflation. Third-quarter inflation data are measured year over year to determine the exact figure by which benefits will be increased in the upcoming year.
The COLA announcement is made each October once third-quarter inflation data are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For 2025, the COLA came in at 2.5%, and, as a result, all benefits were increased accordingly in January. Predictions made early in the year had the 2026 COLA estimated at 2.5% as well; however, these projections have since increased based on the latest available data.
While a bump to your benefit check is a welcome addition in theory, a recent study conducted by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL)—a nonpartisan advocacy organization for seniors—revealed that most seniors feel frustrated with their monthly benefits, and almost all participants felt that the COLA figure does not accurately match the effects of inflation they are experiencing.
How is the COLA determined?
The COLA is determined using the third-quarter CPI-W of the current year, measured against the same period in the previous year. If there is an increase, that percentage becomes the COLA for the upcoming year. If there is no change in the CPI-W year over year—or if there is a decrease—the COLA is announced at 0%.
While we cannot know for sure just yet what the 2026 COLA will be, predictions from experts currently put it around 2.7%. Based on May data, TSCL first estimated a COLA of 2.6%; however, now that July data have been released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the advocacy group has updated its projection to 2.7%. Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson has also placed the 2026 COLA projection at 2.7%.
Seniors are feeling frustrated with their Social Security benefits
TSCL recently conducted a survey of around 2,000 seniors ages 62 and above, and therefore eligible to claim Social Security benefits. According to the results, “94 percent said they felt the 2025 COLA of 2.5 percent was too low and that their benefits grow more slowly than inflation.”
Many seniors feel that the CPI-W, which is used to determine the COLA, is not an accurate measure of costs relative to seniors’ lifestyles. In the report, TSCL writes that “the most popular option, supported by 68 percent of seniors, was calculating the COLA with an inflation index that better represents seniors’ economic experiences. The government currently calculates the COLA with the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, but TSCL advocates switching to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly.”
This concern is especially relevant given the projected increase for Medicare Part B premiums in the upcoming year. According to the 2025 Medicare Trustees report, the Part B premium (which is automatically deducted from the benefit check) is expected to increase by around 11.6%. This means many seniors may not even notice the COLA increase next year—or worse, their checks may seem even smaller than this year due to the Part B increase.
In the survey report, TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton stated: “The data in this study shows what seniors have been telling TSCL for years: Social Security checks aren’t keeping up with inflation. If four in five seniors think inflation was higher than the government reported in 2024, maybe we should stop questioning their experiences and start questioning why the COLA is failing to measure them.”