For beneficiaries of the Social Security program, the month of September is likely a time where anticipation is at its peak. This is because once September sets in, beneficiaries are mere weeks away from the next COLA, or Cost of Living Adjustment announcement. A Cost of Living Adjustment is an increase made to all benefit amounts once a year in order to counter the effects of inflation for the millions of vulnerable beneficiaries who get by on a fixed income such as Social Security.
The COLA is determined based on third quarter inflation data measured year over year. The inflation data is released on a monthly basis throughout the year by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and as such, experts often share estimates for the next COLA throughout the year using the available data. These estimates allow for seniors to have a basic idea of what to expect in the coming year. For 2025, the COLA came in at 2.5% and all benefit amounts were adjusted accordingly in January.
As the year progresses and third quarter inflation data begins to solidify, the most recent estimate for the 2026 COLA has been projected at 2.7% based on July data. While this could mean a slightly bigger bump to benefits next year, a study recently conducted by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has revealed that many seniors are feeling “frustrated” with their benefits because inflation seems to be growing much faster than their benefit checks do.
September inflation data will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 15th, and the Social Security Administration (SSA) will make the 2026 COLA announcement later on the same day. Here is everything you need to know.
Social Security COLA
In order to determine the COLA, a particular subset of the CPI called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers or CPI-W is used. The CPI-W for July, August and September of the current year is measured against the CPI-W for the same quarter of the previous year. If there is a year over year increase, that percentage figure becomes the next COLA. If there is a decrease or no change, the next COLA will default to 0% which means that your benefit amount can only ever increase or remain unchanged but it will never decrease.
Many seniors, however, feel that the CPI-W is not an appropriate measure of costs relative to the lifestyle and expenses held by senior citizens. The CPI-W has over 200 pricing categories, each of which weighs in differently in the overall calculation. Due to this, focus is placed on costs held by a much younger cohort with vastly differing lifestyles. As a result, seniors often feel that the COLA falls short in sufficiently addressing their rising expenses.
For this reason, TSCL “advocates switching to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly.” According to TSCL’s study, around 21.8 million seniors get by solely on Social Security. If inflation is not appropriately accounted for relative to the costs held by seniors, these individuals could face financial hardship as a result of inflation.
Tariffs
Another cause for concern faced by seniors are the impact of President Trump’s tariffs. While there has not yet been a major spike in inflation despite the tariffs coming into effect, experts are of the opinion that the effects of it may still reach consumers in the near future.
“You could make the case that tariffs are likely to drive up inflation more than Social Security COLA actually rises or can cover,” noted independent analyst and Social Security expert Mary Johnson. Food costs are likely to continue to climb due to several issues other than tariffs, too, including weather, geopolitical disasters, and lack of farm workers. And there is a wild card: There are staff changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics that could potentially affect the accuracy of consumer data.”