Every October, the Social Security Administration (SSA) shares a highly anticipated announcement to its beneficiaries. This is known as the Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA announcement. The COLA is essentially a measure of inflation on a year over year basis. If there is an increase in third quarter inflation from the previous year to the current year, all benefits will be increased proportionately at the beginning of the new year. For 2025, the COLA was announced at 2.5% in the previous October with all benefits being increased as such in January.
A subset of the CPI called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is used in the COLA calculation, however, senior advocates such as The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL) believe that this is not the most accurate measure of inflation relative to the costs faced by senior citizens. A TSCL study also found that the majority of surveyed seniors felt that inflation grows significantly faster than their benefits do.
According to calculations done with data available to date from Social Security experts, the 2026 COLA is projected to come in at 2.7% or 2.8%. The COLA is calculated using the CPI-W for July, August, and September, however, September’s data has not yet been released and as such, these projections are still subject to change. Here is everything you need to know.
Higher COLA for 2026?
Despite the current projections for the next COLA coming in higher than that of the 2025 COLA, the raise may not be that effective in fulfilling its purpose. The idea of the COLA is to ensure that the average benefit check retains its buying power in the face of inflation, however, according to a June study published by TSCL, “94 percent said they felt the 2025 COLA of 2.5 percent was too low and that their benefits grow more slowly than inflation.”
If the TSCL’s projected 2.7% COLA comes to pass, retirees should, on average, see $54 more in their checks as of January. On a surface level, a higher COLA translates to a higher benefit check, which is of course a desirable outcome, however, the sad reality of a higher COLA is that the cost of living in general has once again increased. So even if your benefit check comes in with a bigger figure in the new year, more of that same money will still have to be put towards living expenses rather than leisure.
The situation for seniors enrolled in the Medicare program in 2026 will also be worsening due to a major premium hike as per the Medicare Board of Trustees’ report. According to the trustees, the Medicare Part B premium is projected to face an 11.6% increase, which will bring the cost of the Part B premium up from $185 to over $200. Since the Part B premium is automatically deducted from benefit checks, when the premium hike and the COLA increase offset each other, the COLA increase reflected on retirees’ bank statements will be lower than the actual increase.
“The data in this study shows what seniors have been telling TSCL for years: Social Security checks aren’t keeping up with inflation. If four in five seniors think inflation was higher than the government reported in 2024, maybe we should stop questioning their experiences and start questioning why the COLA is failing to measure them,” TSCL’s executive director Shannon Benton wrote in June.
Official COLA announcement
The SSA was previously scheduled to announce the 2026 COLA, as well as the new wage cap and work credit definition on October 15th. Due to the current ongoing federal government shutdown, however, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (who releases the CPI-W data) has ceased all operations. As such, the COLA announcement will likely be delayed indefinitely. In 2013, the COLA announcement had also been delayed by 14 days to a government shutdown.
“Seniors across America are holding their breath as we wait for the official COLA announcement in October. Our research shows that about 39 percent of seniors depend on their benefits for all their income, so the COLA announcement has a direct effect on their quality of life,” Benton noted.