It is now day 7 of the shutdown of the U.S. federal government which means that tens of millions of retirees across the country will now have to wait even longer to find out the exact percentage by which their benefits will be increased by in 2026. The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement, which was previously scheduled for October 15th following the release of the relevant inflation data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has now been delayed indefinitely as a result of the government shutdown. This is because the Department of Labor who oversees the Bureau of Labor Statistics has ceased all operations at this time.
The COLA is essentially a measure of year over year inflation, and if inflation increases from one year to the next, benefit amounts will be adjusted accordingly in the new year. The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses inflation data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the third quarter of the year in particular for the COLA calculation. Due to the shutdown, however, the release of the data for September will now be delayed until the shutdown ends and the Department of Labor resumes activity.
Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its CPI data on a monthly basis, Social Security experts have shared estimations for the next COLA using data from July and August. At present, projections for the 2026 COLA are standing at 2.7%. Here is what you need to know.
2026 COLA projections
The COLA is calculated by measuring the CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year against the CPI-W of the third quarter of the previous year. If there is a year over year increase, that percentage figure will become the next COLA increase and all benefit amounts will be adjusted accordingly in January. For 2025, the COLA came in at 2.5%, however, many seniors agreed that the inflation they are actually feeling is much higher, as per a study conducted by The Senior Citizen’s League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy group.
Based on the July and August CPI-W, TSCL has estimated a COLA of 2.7% for 2026, however, this figure is subject to change relative to what September’s CPI-W reveals. If the 2.7% COLA projection holds steady, retirees will see a modest $54 increase to their checks in the new year, relative to the average benefit amount of around $2,008. While benefit checks will be increasing in the new year, retirees will also be hit with another less desirable increase: Medicare premiums.
According to the Medicare Board of Trustees report, the Medicare Part B premium is projected to increase by 11.6% in the upcoming year, and as a result, the cost of the Part B premium will jump from $185 to around $206. Medicare Part B premiums are also deducted from benefit checks automatically, which means that when the Part B premium increase and the COLA increase offset each other, the COLA will reflect as a significantly lower number even though it should be $54 on average.
Social Security COLA announcement delay
Due to almost all staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics being furloughed as a result of the government shutdown, all operations have been halted and the release of the September CPI-W will be delayed. The September data was previously scheduled to be released on October 15th with the SSA making the official COLA announcement later that day. Now, however, there is no concrete date on which retirees can expect the COLA announcement.
On Monday, President Donald Trump shared that talks are currently underway with the Democrats regarding the healthcare spending bill, which caused the initial deadlock resulting in the shutdown.
“We want great health care for people,” Trump said to reporters on Monday. “We don’t want to give the money away to other people that come pouring into our country…We have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things. I’m talking about good things with regard to health care.”