Before the end of the month, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is scheduled to officially announce the COLA increase for 2026. The COLA, or Cost of Living Adjustment, is an annual increase implemented across all benefits disbursed by the SSA. This increase is aimed at countering the effects of year over year inflation, and it has been automatically calculated since 1975. Prior to this, any increases to benefits as a result of growing inflation were subject to Congressional approval, and often occurred at random.
The COLA is calculated using a subset of the CPI called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which is released on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The release of the September CPI-W has been delayed due to the currently federal government shutdown, however, based on the July and August CPI-W, projections for the 2026 COLA are currently standing at 2.7%. This would translate to a $54 bump to benefit checks on average, however, the actual figure reflected in the bank accounts of seniors may be even lower than this. Here is what you need to know.
2026 COLA may fall short
In 2025, the COLA brought beneficiaries of the Social Security program a 2.5% benefit bump. According to The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL), the 2026 COLA is projected to come it at around 2.7%, which is slightly higher than the 2025 COLA but average from a historical standpoint. A COLA of 2.7% will bring $54 more to a retiree earning the average benefit amount, but there is a catch: Medicare premiums are also increasing.
On paper, the average retiree will be getting around $54 more in their benefit checks as of January, however, Medicare premiums are also projected to increase in the new year. According to the Medicare Board of Trustees 2025 report, the Medicare Part B premium is projected to face a whopping 11.6% increase in 2026. This will bring the cost of the Part B premium up from $185 to $206.50. Since Medicare Part B premiums are deducted automatically from Social Security benefits, when the higher premium expense and the (projected) 2.7% COLA increase offset each other, seniors will only be left with around $33 as their COLA increase — and this is based on the assumption that other major costs remain stagnant.
This will likely significantly reduce the COLA’s ability to fulfill its purpose of combating inflation, and many seniors are already feeling quite frustrated with their benefits and COLAs, with many seniors agreeing that the inflation grows much faster than their benefits do. In TSCL’s latest update, TSCL executive director Shannon Benton wrote the following: “Many seniors believe inflation is much higher than the COLA estimates. For example, TSCL’s estimates that about 80 percent of seniors believed inflation in 2024 was substantially higher than the 2.5 percent COLA implemented to make up for it at the beginning of 2025.”
New date for the 2026 COLA announcement
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was previously scheduled to release the CPI-W for September on October 15th. Staff at BLS have, however, been furloughed and operations have been halted since October 1st as a result of the federal government shutdown. Consequently, the release of the September data has been pushed back, and in turn, the official COLA announcement has also been pushed back.
The COLA announcement is a highly anticipated one and the good news for the millions of beneficiaries across the country is that a new announcement date has been confirmed and it is within this month. The BLS has shared an update stating that it will publish the September CPI on October 24th, and the SSA will make its official announcement that same day.
“BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” as per the October 10th update from BLS.