October 15th which was yesterday was meant to bring with it an announcement that seniors eagerly await each year. Due to a federal government shutdown that began on October 1st, however, this announcement that would reveal the exact amount by which Social Security benefits will be raised in 2026 has now been pushed back by several days. The announcement in question is the annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement. The COLA is an annual increase implemented to all benefits issued by the Social Security Administration (SSA) as a means of countering the year over year effects of inflation.
In 2025, the COLA increase brought seniors across the country a modest 2.5% increase to their benefits, however, many seniors felt that inflation grows significantly faster than their benefits do. Projections for the next COLA have been holding steady at 2.7% over the course of both July and August. The data required to calculate the COLA each year is released on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics who is overseen by the Department of Labor. Due to the federal government shutdown that began on October 1st, staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been furloughed and all data collection has been stopped. In the context of Social Security, this means that the release of the data required for the COLA calculation will also be delayed.
When will the 2026 COLA be announced?
As a result of the ongoing government shutdown, seniors who are reliant on Social Security across the country will have to wait in anticipation a little longer before their COLA increase is announced. The good news is that the announcement has not been pushed too far back and the tens of millions of Social Security beneficiaries can expect to hear the announcement on October 24th. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently shared an update stating that it would release the September CPI on October 24th, thereby allowing the SSA to determine and announce the 2026 COLA before the month ends.
“BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” as per the BLS website.
The COLA is calculated using data from the CPI-W for the third quarter of the year. If there is a year over year increase in the CPI-W for this period, this becomes the next COLA.
Seniors are feeling the pinch of inflation
If the projected 2.7% COLA is accurate, the average retiree will see $54 more in their checks in the new year (less if they are enrolled in Medicare Part B since the premium is projected to increase by 11.6% in 2026). Many seniors have been feeling frustrated with their benefits and the COLAs, with many fearing that the next COLA will not sufficiently counter the effects of inflation.
SSA beneficiary Sue Conard who is a 75 year old retired nurse from La Crosse, Wisconsin, alongside other retiree members of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union recently visited the U.S. Capitol to lobby for meaningful change regarding healthcare so as to end the shutdown. Conard also wants for lawmakers to rework the way its calculates the COLA.
“The issue of how the COLA is determined is flat-out wrong because health care is not factored into the CPI,” Conard explained, speaking in front of the Longworth House Office Building. The CPI-W which is currently used to determine the COLA does not accurately factor in the types of costs held by seniors. Instead, it measures costs relative to the lifestyles of a much younger cohort. The result: a COLA that falls short in fulfilling its purpose.
Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa. Recently proposed the COLA be calculated with the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W, however, the Senate Finance Committee did not give it a hearing.