After weeks of uncertainty, the U.S. government is making an unprecedented move that will see retirees receive answers about their Social Security payments. Amidst the ongoing federal shutdown, furloughed workers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are being temporarily recalled to publish the inflation data that will be critical in the determination of the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
The long-awaited announcement that is usually done on October 15 will now take place on October 24. According to officials, the rare move will ensure the release of critical economic data despite the shutdown.
Why Millions of Seniors Are Watching This Announcement Closely
Over 75 million Americans rely on Social Security or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) to cover their daily expenses. To them, the announcement of COLA is important because it will determine if their monthly checks will keep up with the rising costs of services and products.
Normally, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces the new COLA around October 15. However, due to a government shutdown that started on October 1, operations were suspended in agencies that are involved in the determination of COLA.. One of these agencies is the BLS, which releases the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), key information used in COLA calculation.
The BLS confirmed that the September’s CPI data will be released on October 24 to allow the SSA to officially announce the 2026 COLA on the same day.
“The Social Security Administration (SSA) will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 24 as well,” a spokesperson of the SSA said.
Furloughed Workers Recalled for One Task
The BLS will be recalling a limited number of furloughed workers to compile and verify the September inflation report. This decision will enable the agency to meet statutory deadlines and guarantee that retirees will receive their benefit adjustment without delay.
Other economic reports, such as the September jobs report, will remain on hold until the government shutdown ends.
The move to recall furloughed workers to meet the statutory deadline is an indicator that the COLA announcement is critical for millions of seniors who depend on Social Security as their main source of income.
What to Expect on October 24
On October 24, economists expect the 2026 COLA to fall between 2.7% and 2.8%, which is a slight rise from this year’s 2.5%. These are just projections, and the actual figure will depend on the September CPI data.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan advocacy group, estimates a 2.7% COLA. This will mean that the average monthly payment will rise from $2,008 to about $2,062. Some analysts believe the COLA adjustment could reach 3% if inflation continues to rise.
While the increase may seem small compared to increases in the pandemic-era of 5.9% and 8.7%, it would mark the fifth consecutive year of COLA going above 2.5%. The last time this happened was between 1988 and 1997, when COLA ranged between 2.6% and 5.4%.
Why Inflation Plays a Central Role
During the calculation of COLA, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which measures price changes for over 200 goods and services, is used. The SSA averages data from July, August, and September and compares it with the same period from the previous year. The percentage difference determines the COLA, rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
If inflation remains high, retirees will receive larger adjustments. However, that also indicates that the prices of everyday expenses is also high.
How the Decision Impacts Retirees Nationwide
The release of inflation data, even as the government struggles with shutdown politics, is an indicator that Social Security is vital to the financial wellness of Americans. The SSA confirmed that the 2026 COLA will still take effect in January with no delay, despite the current government shutdown.
As we wait for the final figure, most experts project that the 2026 COLA will be slightly higher than that of 2025. While the increase might be modest, it will still be important to ensure that Social Security benefits keep up with the rising costs of essential goods and services.