Inflation has become something of an inescapable facet of life, and for those living on a fixed income such as Social Security, the repercussions of growing inflation can become especially dire. As such, all benefits have been undergoing an annual increase relative to year over year inflation since 1975. This increase is called the COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) and the COLA for 2026 was meant to be announced days ago on October 15th. Due to the federal government shutdown, however, the announcement has been delayed.
The COLA announcement is a highly anticipated event for beneficiaries of the Social Security program as it reveals exactly how much seniors will be receiving from the Social Security Administration (SSA) in the new year. Whilst retirees across the country are forced to wait in anticipation a little while longer due to the shutdown, a new date for the COLA announcement has been confirmed and it will happen before the month is up. Here is what you need to know.
New date for the 2026 COLA announcement
The COLA is calculated using data from a subset of the CPI called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W for the third quarter of the year. The CPI is released on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, due to the federal government shutdown that began on October 1st, all operations at the Bureau have been halted.
The September CPI data required for the COLA calculation had already been collected, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics previously scheduled to release it on October 15th. Due to the shutdown, the vast majority of staff (all but one staff member) at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been furloughed. Subsequently on October 10th, the Bureau announced that it will be releasing the September CPI data on October 24th so as to allow the SSA to make its COLA announcement on that same day.
“BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” as per the BLS website.
Releasing the September CPI is an exception being made by the BLS so as to allow for the SSA to make its COLA announcement. This exception is likely being made since the data had already been collected, and as such, no other reports will be published until the shutdown ends.
”The Office of Management and Budget instructed the BLS to recall workers involved in assembling the September CPI report,” noted JP Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. “However, no dates have been set for other data releases that normally would have been released.”
2026 COLA projections
Drawing from the CPI data of July and August, the Seniors Citizen’s League (TSCL) has projected a COLA of 2.7% for the new year. If accurate, the 2026 COLA would be marginally higher than the 2025 COLA which came in at 2.5%. From a historical standpoint, however, a COLA of 2.7% reads as average.
A COLA increase of 2.7% will bring to retirees around $54 more on average. In reality, however, the average retiree may only see a modest $33 dollar bump to their checks in 2026. This is because Medicare Part B premiums are also projected to increase by 11.6% in the upcoming year. This premium hike would increase the cost of the Part B premium from $185 to around $206. When the two increases offset each other, the COLA comes in at a much lower figure due to the Part B premium being automatically deducted from benefit checks.
These are all just projections for the time-being, and the official figures will be announced by the SSA on October 24th.