Each year, all Social Security benefits disbursed by the Social Security Administration (SSA) undergo an increase relative to year over year inflation hikes. This is known as the Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA. This year, anticipation and perhaps even anxiety had been exacerbated for seniors as the official COLA announcement had to be delayed as a result of the current ongoing shutdown of the U.S. federal government.
The good news for Social Security beneficiaries is that their benefits will still be disbursed to them as per the official schedule despite the shutdown. The COLA announcement which was meant to take place on October 15th had, however, been delayed and will now take place on Friday, October 24th.
This delay has come about as a result of furloughed staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes the data required to calculate the annual COLA. While all operations have ceased at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a special concession is being made and the September data required for the COLA will be released so as to allow the SSA to make the announcement. Projections for the next COLA are currently standing at 2.7%. Here is what you need to know.
2026 COLA estimations
The annual COLA increase is determined by measuring the CPI-W of the third quarter of the current year against the CPI-W of the third quarter of the previous year, with any increases becoming the next COLA. Since the COLA calculation utilises third quarter data, the official announcement is made in October of each year, with the actual increase only going into effect as of January of the upcoming year.
Drawing from CPI-W data for both July and August, The Senior Citizens’s League (TSCL) has projected a 2.7% increase for seniors in 2026. This will be a marginally higher increase than that of 2025 which came in at 2.5%. TSCL has, however, also noted that a COLA of 2.7% is average from a historical standpoint.
TSCL also advocates for the COLA to be calculated using the CPI-E rather than the CPI-W after finding that the CPI-W is costing seniors thousands of dollars that could have been providing them with financial relief.
In a recent report, TSCL notes that, “if current long-term inflation patterns continue, the average person who retired in 2014 will lose about $8,000 of benefits across a 25-year retirement from using COLAs calculated with the CPI-W instead of the CPI-E. For someone who retired in 2024, we project that number to rise to just over $12,000.”
Regardless, the current COLA projection should be relatively accurate as the July and August data will also be used in the official calculation. If these estimates hold steady and the COLA is announced at 2.7%, a retiree earning the average benefit check will see a $54 increase to their benefit starting in January.
”Social Security benefits account for nearly one-third of income for those over age 65, and 90% for over 1 in 10 seniors,” according to the SSA.
COLA announce date change
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was previously scheduled to release the September CPI on the morning of October 15th, with the SSA making the official COLA announcement later that day. Unfortunately, due to the government shutdown that began on October 1st, the release of the September CPI had been pushed back despite the data having already been collected. On October 10th, the Bureau issued an updated stating that it would release the September CPI on October 24th, which is tomorrow so as to allow the SSA make the official COLA announcement.
”BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” as per BLS.