Each year since 1975, Social Security benefits have been adjusted for inflation on an annual basis. This is known as the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) and it is determined by measuring year over year changes in the CPI-W for the third quarter of the year. At the beginning of 2025, seniors across the country received a modest 2.5% increase to their benefits.
At the time, initial estimates for the next COLA were projected at 2.1%, however, with the progression of the year and the release of each respective month’s CPI, the current estimates for the 2026 COLA are standing between 2.7% and 2.8%. The official COLA announcement will be made on October 24th, later today. Here is everything you need to know.
2026 COLA projections
The COLA is calculated using a subset of the CPI called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The CPI-W for the third quarter of the year is measured against the same data in the same period of the previous year. If there is an increase, this becomes the next COLA. It is also worth noting that if there is a decrease in the CPI-W from the previous year to the current year, your benefits will not be reduced. The COLA will merely default to 0%.
The Senior Citizens League — a nonpartisan senior advocacy group — has projected a COLA of 2.7% based on the available data from July and August. If the official COLA figure matches this estimation, seniors across the country will receive around $54 more on average. While this may be the official figure (assuming that the projections are accurate), the actual increase seen by a number of seniors may be far less in actuality.
This is because Medicare Part B premiums are also projected to face an 11.6% increase in 2026, as per the Medicare Trustees’ annual report. This would bring the cost of the premium up from $185 to around $206. The reason this premium hike would make your COLA increase seem smaller is because the Medicare Part B premiums are automatically deducted from the benefit before the check is sent out to its recipient. As such, once the two increases offset each other, a retiree earning the average benefit (approximately $2,008), will only see an increase of around $33 instead of $54.
When speaking to CNBC, retired oncology researcher Bailey said that, “the last time she really felt the impact of a COLA was in 2023, when the adjustment was 8.7%.” This 8.7% brought an additional $135 to their benefit, which “helped, but I used it all,” Bailey noted. Regarding the projected $54 bump for 2026, Bailey subsequently noted that it “won’t do anything given the high price of food, rent and healthcare.”
COLA announcement delay
As of October 1st, the U.S. federal government has been shutdown following a deadlock between parties regarding the healthcare spending bill. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) who releases the monthly CPI has since ceased all operations. All but one of the 2055 employees at BLS had been furloughed, resulting in delays with the release of the September CPI.
Had the shutdown not occurred, BLS was previously scheduled to release the September CPI on October 15th, with the SSA making the official COLA announcement that same day. Since the data had already been collected prior to the shutdown, BLS announced on October 10th that it would make an exception despite the shutdown and release the September CPI on October 24th. This will allow the SSA to determine and announce the 2026 COLA also on October 24th.
“BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits,” as per the BLS website.
An SSA spokesperson also noted the following to Newsweek: “Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for 75 million Americans will be adjusted per the 2026 COLA, beginning January 1, 2026, without any delay due to the current government lapse in appropriation.”