The Social Security program was introduced to Americans close to a century ago with the aim of fighting elder poverty. Today, the insurance program has steadily grown into a structure of support that allows millions upon millions of vulnerable individuals to rest easy knowing that they will receive a stable income each month during their retirement, or in the event of becoming disabled.
Relying on a fixed income is not that easy, however, particularly when considering the effects of inflation that appears to be on a continuous incline as of late. Even the smallest of increases in regular expenses could end up causing significant financial strain on the households of those with living on fixed incomes such as Social Security. As such, in order to help maintain the buying power of a monthly Social Security check, the benefit amount is adjusted annually to account for the effects of inflation. This is known as the Cost Of Living Adjustment, but it is often referred to as the COLA.
Predictions for the 2026 COLA have already begun circulating, however, the official adjustment figure will be announced on October 15th since the COLA is calculated using third quarter inflation data for the year. Here is what you need to know.
Social Security COLA 2026
As noted above, the annual COLA is determined using third quarter inflation data — specifically the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) which the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly. The CPI-W third quarter data (July, August, and September) of the present year is compared to the third quarter CPI-W data of the previous year. If there is an increase from the previous year, this figure becomes the COLA for the upcoming year.
If there is no change in inflation year over year, or if there is a decrease, the benefit amount will remain unchanged for the upcoming year. There have only been three instances were the COLA was announced to be 0% since 1975. This occurred in the years 2010, 2011, and 2016.
Subsequently, the COLA for the upcoming year of 2026 will be officially announced later in the year on October 15th as this is the date on which the CPI-W data for September will be released. As such, beneficiaries of the Social Security program should definitely keep an eye out for news from the Social Security Administration (SSA) on October 15 because, in addition to the 2026 COLA announcement, the agency will also provide updates on several other integral changes to the program.
The following changes to the Social Security program will likely be announced sometime in October:
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The wage cap for Social Security taxes
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The maximum monthly benefit
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The earnings test limit
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The amount of earnings needed to earn work credits
2026 COLA predictions thus far
A high COLA may seem like great news for the beneficiary on a surface level as it is a bump to their benefit amounts, however, a COLA increase means that the cost of goods or services has also increased. As a result, the small bump to your benefit will likely get lost in the increased costs of living.
However, whilst the COLA cannot accurately be determined ahead of time, estimations are often made using inflation data throughout the year. Inflation has been on something of an incline throughout the year thus far, however, it has remained somewhat manageable for the most part. The latest estimates released by both The Senior Citizen’s League and independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson has placed the upcoming COLA somewhere between 2.6% and 2.7%.
Experts, however, are warning that “rising Medicare premiums and a slow-moving response to retirees’ actual costs may undermine any gains — especially for low-income beneficiaries.”
Additionally, Mary Johnson has also noted that, “It’s not uncommon for Part B premiums to consume much or even all of the annual COLA, leaving little extra to cover other big cost increases.”