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Cuts, Increases, and New Rules — What’s Changing for Social Security in the Rest of 2025

Jordan Blakeby Jordan Blake
08/16/2025 16:00

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The year 2025 has brought a steady drumbeat of changes for both Social Security beneficiaries and the Social Security Administration (SSA). It opened with the Social Security Fairness Act being signed into law and the Trump administration taking office. In the months since, the agency has announced a series of policy and systems updates that touch everything from benefit taxation to overpayment recovery.

For retirees, survivors, and disabled workers who depend on monthly checks, the stakes are obvious: these decisions shape household budgets and how smoothly the program runs.

Some moves have been internal—process tweaks, system upgrades, and guidance meant to streamline operations. Others have landed directly on beneficiaries’ doorsteps. The most consequential so far is a new 50% withholding rate now in effect for people the SSA says were overpaid in the past. A second headline item is still on the horizon: the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which the SSA will announce in October once third-quarter inflation data is final.

Another flash point has been the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a broad reconciliation package that includes changes affecting how seniors’ Social Security income is taxed. That provision has generated plenty of attention—and no small amount of confusion—because of how the relief has been described publicly. Below are the key developments to watch, both recent and upcoming.

One Big Beautiful Bill Act

On July 4, President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law. The bill runs roughly 1,000 pages and covers a wide range of policies, but for Social Security beneficiaries the headline is a new tax break: $6,000 for single filers and $12,000 for joint filers, available when income falls below specified thresholds. The catch is timing. The relief is temporary, running from 2025 through 2028 unless Congress extends it.

Officials have highlighted the change as effectively removing federal income taxes on benefits for most recipients because fewer people will cross the taxation thresholds. After the bill’s passage, the SSA emailed beneficiaries praising the measure and stating that the OBBBA “eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security benefits for most beneficiaries, providing relief to individuals and couples.”

That message landed with mixed results. Many beneficiaries welcomed the news, but some were left unsure about who exactly qualifies, and several former SSA officials criticized the framing as potentially misleading. The bottom line is simple: the thresholds rise and many will pay less, but the relief is not universal and it is not permanent unless lawmakers act again.

Social Security COLA

As summer moves into the third quarter, attention shifts to the COLA—the annual inflation adjustment that lifts benefit amounts. The formula compares the CPI-W for July, August, and September with the same period a year earlier; if the index is higher, that percentage becomes the next year’s COLA. For 2025, the COLA was 2.5%, and checks increased by that amount in January.

Even so, many seniors say the adjustment hasn’t fully kept up with costs for essentials like housing, groceries, and medical care.

On Tuesday, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) updated its projection for the 2026 COLA to 2.7%, based on the latest inflation readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The official number will arrive in October, and while 2.7% would be a modest bump, it still represents meaningful dollars over a year for households that rely on Social Security to cover monthly bills.

SSA Enacts Clawbacks

In April, after an emergency meeting, the SSA announced a tougher stance on overpayments: beneficiaries with outstanding balances would face a 50% withholding rate. On April 25, the agency sent notices detailing the alleged overpayments and outlining next steps. Recipients were given 90 days to respond—by requesting reconsideration, filing a waiver of repayment, or negotiating a lower withholding rate.

As of July 24, unless a beneficiary acted within that 90-day window, half of the monthly benefit is being withheld until the debt is repaid. The agency argues the approach protects program integrity. Critics counter that it can create hardship, especially when overpayments stem from complex rules or agency errors. Either way, the policy is now live, and affected beneficiaries need to review their notices and choose a path forward.

The Bottom Line

Put together, 2025’s Social Security landscape is a mix of short-term tax relief, routine—but closely watched—COLA mechanics, and a far more aggressive overpayment recovery policy. The details matter. Beneficiaries should watch for the October COLA announcement, check how the OBBBA thresholds affect their tax situation, and, if they received an overpayment letter, make sure they understand their options and deadlines. In a year of constant movement, staying informed is the surest way to avoid surprises.

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