The Social Security program exists as a cornerstone of financial support for tens of millions of vulnerable individuals across the country. Recently, however, concerns for the future stability of the program have been repeatedly raised following the latest annual report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. According to the report, Social Security beneficiaries could see their benefits cut by at least 19% less than a decade from now because a major trust fund is expected to become insolvent by 2033.
The agency has recently come under fire regarding its decision to downsize its staff, with many fearing this decision could ultimately result in delays or interruptions to benefit payments. From the perspective of the agency, however, the downsizing appears to be a non-issue, with the agency working towards turning the SSA into a “digital first organization”.
As such, President Donald Trump has once again reaffirmed his vow to protect Social Security on Monday in the Oval Office. Here is what you need to know.
Are Social Security’s finances worsening?
The Social Security program has three primary sources of funding: a dedicated payroll tax wherein 12.4% of a worker’s earnings are contributed (split 50/50 between employee and employer), the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund, and the Disability Insurance trust fund. A portion of Social Security income can also be subject to taxation, and this tax revenue is then put into the trust funds.
According to the most recent annual report, the Old Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is expected to be depleted by 2033 if Congress does not make a major change in the present. If this OASI trust fund does become emptied, the remaining revenue in the program will only be sufficient to cover 77% of all scheduled benefits, meaning that beneficiaries could lose 23% of their monthly benefit income.
In the report, the Board of Trustees also posed the possibility of combining the two trust funds into one OASDI trust fund. According to the trustee’s estimates, “the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits.”
At present, nothing has been decided, however, lawmakers have been debating various solutions. Some of these solutions include increasing the Full Retirement Age again, or lifting the wage cap. A bipartisan proposal from two senators also put forward the suggestion of creating a new investment fund which would, however, require a $1.5 trillion start-up investment from the Treasury.
What are the official channels saying?
On Monday in the Oval Office, Trump stated the following: “One thing I said and I gave my word — we’re not going to hurt anybody on Medicaid, Medicare or Social Security.”
“We’re doing great on Social Security” and “we’re going to protect it,” he added.
Maintaining the Social Security program has been a promise made by Trump since his 2024 campaign trail, along with the elimination of taxes on Social Security benefits. As such, under his new mega bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, seniors will benefit from a tax deduction of $6,000 for single filers and $12,000 for joint filers. This tax relief will be in place for a temporary period ending in 2028, with many official channels claiming this new bill eliminates tax on Social Security for most.
As a result, many former SSA officials and experts criticized the framing of the temporary tax relief in this way as it was causing confusion for beneficiaries.
“Changes to the tax deductibles make it look like Trump had made good on his promise, but there’s no connection of this at all to the taxation of Social Security benefits,” explains Laurence Kotlikof, a professor of economics at Boston University. “If a person is low income and their tax rate is low to begin with, they will not get much of a tax break from the deductible.”