While Social Security benefits do provide senior citizens with a stable and consistent source of income during their retirement, living on a fixed income can sometimes be a bit more tough to navigate than one would hope. This is, of course, due to the effects of inflation that spares no one. As such, in order to help the average benefit check maintain its buying power in the face of rising costs, the Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts all benefit amounts relative to year over year inflation hikes.
This increase is implemented once a year and is known as the Cost of Living Adjustment, or COLA. The COLA for 2026 will be announced by the agency in the coming weeks once the relevant data is release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This has been scheduled for October 15th, however, Social Security beneficiaries should take the announcement with a pinch of salt because the COLA figure that will be announced may not be the exact amount they see reflected in their 2026 benefit checks. Here is what you need to know.
2026 COLA — how is it determined?
In order to determine the COLA each year, the SSA uses a subset of the CPI called the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) as its measure of inflation. In particular, the third quarter CPI-W of the current year is measured against the third quarter CPI-W of the previous year. If there is a year over year increase, this becomes the next COLA. If there is no change, or if there is a decrease in the CPI-W from the previous year to the current year, the next COLA will default to 0.0%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases this data on a monthly basis and as a result, experts often share early projections for the next COLA throughout the year. This allows for seniors to have a rough idea of what to expect in the new year which in turn can then provide them with ample time to plan out their finances accordingly if necessary.
The third quarter CPI-W for 2025 is scheduled to be announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30am on October 15th, which means that the SSA will likely announce the 2026 COLA by the evening of October 15th. Beneficiaries can find the 2026 COLA announcement on the SSA’s website once it is released. The announcement will most likely be found on the SSA’s Communications Corner page under press releases.
Medicare premiums projected to eat away at COLA boost
The Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson have placed their 2026 COLA projections at 2.7% and 2.8% respectively — making the 2026 COLA slightly higher than that of 2025 which came it at a modest 2.5%. If these figures hold steady, retirees will be looking at a benefit bump of a little over $50 (relative to the average benefit check amount).
“That’s apt to look pretty underwhelming to most Social Security recipients,” Social Security expert Mary Johnson stated regarding the estimated 2.8% COLA increase.
The unfortunate news for seniors, particularly those enrolled in Medicare, is that they may not even see the full 2.8% increase in their benefit checks in the new year. This is because a significant number of retirees are enrolled in Medicare Part B, which means that their monthly premium payments are automatically taken out of their benefit checks.
According to estimates from the Medicare Board of Trustees, the Part B premium is projected to increase rather significantly in the upcoming year. Currently, the Medicare Part B premium stands at $185, however, as per the trustees’ estimates, the premium will likely increase by $21.50 in 2026 — bringing the cost of the premium up to $206.50.
“A jump of $21.50 would be very close to setting the record for the highest premium jump in terms of dollars, in program history, which was $21.60 per month set in 2022,” Johnson further noted.