Every October, the Social Security Administration (SSA) makes a highly anticipated announcement that will reveal to seniors how much they will receive in benefits in the new year. This is known as the COLA, or Cost Of Living Adjustment announcement. The COLA is a measure of year over year inflation and if there is an increase from the previous year to the current year, all benefit amounts will undergo an increase in proportion in January. The COLA is announced annually in October because the calculation uses CPI data for the third quarter of the year. This means that as soon as the September data becomes available, the COLA can be determined and subsequently announced by the SSA.
The inflation data used in the COLA calculation is released on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, due to the current federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has furloughed most of its staff and ceased all operations. As a result, the release of September’s data has been delayed indefinitely, which will in turn delay the COLA announcement — leaving seniors await in anticipation for a while longer.
Beneficiaries are not entirely in the dark regarding what to expect from their next COLA, however. Since the data is released monthly, Social Security experts often share projections based on the data available to date. According to The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL), the 2026 COLA is currently estimated to come in at 2.7%. This would translate to a $54 increase relative to the average benefit check. If you go state by state, however, the average in some states will be higher than others.
2026 COLA projections
The COLA is determined using a subset of the CPI called the CPI-W, which has over 200 pricing categories. TSCL’s estimations for the next COLA have steadily been growing higher and higher with each passing month. At the beginning of the year, their estimates stood at 2.1%, despite the 2025 COLA being announced at 2.5%. With the release of the July CPI-W, TSCL announced an updated projection of 2.7%, and following the release of the August CPI-W, the group shared another update stating that their projections are still holding steady at 2.7%.
“Inflation is substantially higher than our model predicted at the beginning of the year. In January 2025, our model predicted that inflation would cool, and the COLA would come in at 2.1 percent. Instead, the prediction steadily ticked upward throughout the year as the Trump administration implemented economic policy changes, including aggressive tariff policies that some experts say have the potential to increase inflation,” TSCL wrote in its latest update.
If the 2.7% projection is correct, the 2026 COLA will be higher than that of 2025 and seniors will receive an average of $54 more in their checks starting in January. The unfortunate issue with a higher COLA is that it comes about as a result of higher costs for goods and services, and for seniors enrolled in Medicare in 2206, the situation is especially concerning. According to the Medicare trustee report, the Part B premium is projected to jump up by 11.6% in 2026, bringing the cost of the premium up from $185 to approximately $206.
Top 10 states with the highest COLA increases
The COLA is a percentage increase and as such, the increase each respective beneficiary receives is determined relative to the amount they are eligible for in benefits — the higher your benefit check, the higher your COLA increase. According to the Annual Statistical Supplement report for 2025 as published by the SSA, retirees living in the ten states listed below have the highest median Social Security benefits.
Median Retired-Worker Benefit by state:
- New Jersey – $2,172
- Connecticut – $2,159
- Delaware – $2,139
- New Hampshire – $2,121
- Maryland – $2,084
- Michigan – $2,067
- Washington – $2,061
- Minnesota – $2,053
- Massachusetts – $2,021
- Indiana – $2,016
The state in which you reside can impact how much you receive from Social Security, though indirectly. This is because the amount you receive as benefits is determined in relation to your lifetime earnings. As such, residents of states with higher median incomes will likely receive bigger benefit checks and vice versa.