The government just confirmed the new ‘judgment day’ for the next Social Security raise. On October 24, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will unveil the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). On this day, millions of Americans will find out how much bigger their Social Security checks will be next year. The announcement was delayed because of the government shutdown.
Why October 24 Matters So Much
The SSA usually announces the annual COLA around October 15, the same day Medicare’s open enrollment period begins. However, this year’s announcement was delayed after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was forced to pause operations during the early October government shutdown.
The BLS is tasked with releasing the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W data), which is used by the SSA to calculate COLA adjustments. Without the September CPI-W report, the SSA couldn’t finalize the 2026 COLA.
This missing data will finally be released at 8:30 a.m. on October 24. This will give the SSA the required data that they will use to calculate the COLA for 2026 and announce the official COLA later the same day.
October 24 has been termed the ‘judgment day’ because retirees will find out the increments they will get in their Social Security come January 1, 2026.
What Retirees Should Expect
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), an advocacy group for older Americans, currently estimates that the COLA 2026 will be around 2.7%. This figure would be slightly above this year’s 2.5% COLA but lower than the 2022 and 2023 COLA when inflation was at its peak.
If the TSCL projection is accurate, the average retiree could receive an additional $50 to $60 per month. However, experts warn that much of the increments could be swallowed by higher Medicare Part B premiums, which are projected to rise by 11.6% next year, according to Medicare Trustees.
The Hidden Catch Behind Your Social Security Raise
The COLA is designed to ensure that Social Security benefits keep up with inflation by adjusting benefits each year. In theory, COLA ensures that Social Security checks retain their purchasing power.
However, the system is far from perfect because while COLA is meant to help retirees keep pace with inflation, it is not accurately designed to beat inflation. In other words, even a higher-than-expected COLA doesn’t necessarily boost the real-world buying power.
The main problem is the formula used to calculate COLA. COLA is based on the CPI-W, which tracks changes for urban workers and not retirees. It doesn’t factor in the most common things that seniors spend their money on, such as healthcare, housing, and essentials, which in most cases rise faster than general inflation.
Many advocacy groups have argued that the current system shortchanges retirees. TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton warned that the COLA formula doesn’t reflect the inflation that retirees experience.
What You Should Do on October 24
While no action is required from recipients once the COLA is confirmed, they are advised to stay informed because it’s key for accurate budgeting of monthly benefits. You can find updates directly on SSA.gov or watch for updates from trusted outlets, which will publish the coverage immediately after the announcement.
Preparing for What Comes Next
While COLA provides financial relief, experts warn against depending on the increase to solve financial pressures. COLA increases are usually modest and get eaten up by inflation. Therefore, instead of hoping for larger COLAs, recipients should take control of their finances and find additional sources of income to supplement their benefits.
A 2.7% increase will provide financial relief but not enough to erase the impact of rising costs of healthcare, housing, and food.